The Macao Meteorological & Geophysical Bureau had analyzed the conditions of the oceans and the general atmospheric circulation between the recent winter and the present period, noticing that the sea surface temperature over the eastern to the middle part of the Equatorial Pacific had started cooling since last July and developed into a La Niña phenomenon late last year. However, trend of gradual weakening was shown since February this year. According to climatic data, there had been an annual average of 4.5 tropical cyclones affecting Macao for the past ten years. While at the same time, as we are now within a "weak La Niña" year, an above average number of tropical cyclones are expecting to affect us this year. From the above analysis, a preliminary outlook for this year had been outlined. We are expecting a number of 5 tropical cyclones or above affecting Macao this year of which around 2 of them leading to a typhoon signal number eight or above. The first tropical cyclone to affect us is expected to be around mid to late June which is earlier than normal, while the last one will be around mid October lying close to normal. Besides, the average temperature and precipitation of this summer (June till August) will be normal, that is approximately 28 degrees Celsius with a total rainfall ranging between 700 and 1200mm respectively.
